VOLCANO: CoV Session : Assessing Volcanic Hazards and Risk

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CoV Session : Assessing Volcanic Hazards and Risk
From: ecalder@xxxxxxxxxxx
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Dear Colleagues,

We wish to draw your attention to a session on "Assessing Volcanic Hazards and Risk"
at the Cities on Volcanoes conference, Colima, 19-23rd November 2012
(http://www.citiesonvolcanoes7.com/).

The abstract and registration deadline have been extended until 28th August. Please consider submitting an abstract.

Session Description 2.1: Assessing Volcanic Hazards and Risk
(Conveners: Eliza Calder, Hugo Delgado)

Generating hazard maps, probabilistic hazard maps or risk maps for active or potentially active volcanoes is recognized as a fundamental step towards the
mitigation of risk to vulnerable communities. Yet the evaluation of hazards and risk for any given site is a multi-disciplinary process linking basic field studies,
applied geoscience, engineering and statistics and is often undertaken by diverse groups of specialists from government institutions the academic community
and even the private sector. The process begins with assessing the past behaviour of volcanic activity and culminates in the production of hazard and risk maps
that can assist public officials as they plan mitigation strategies. However in undertaking this work, a wide variety of methods are currently employed and the
respective philosophies on which they are based vary substantially. Increasingly, computational models of volcanic hazards are used to gauge potential areas of
inundation or tephra loading from future eruptions. These models range from simple but robust empirical relationships to stochastic application of complex
fluid dynamical models. Risk assessments are then based on probabilistic information about the potential hazards as well as identification and analysis of the
loss exposure. Although hazard and risk assessments have to be custom-built for each volcano, the geo-hazard community benefits from a cross-fertilization
of ideas, across disciplinarily boundaries and from exposure to a range of geographically and sociologically diverse applications. This session will bring experts
in modelling, computing, and statistical analysis, together with field scientists, who have developed new models and tools for hazard and risk assessment. We
invite contributions that address a broad range of topics including:

Hazard analysis and mapping
Determining the magnitudes and eruptive intensities of past eruptions
Methods of probabilistic analysis
Uncertainty in hazard analysis
Prediction of extreme events and their consequences
Risk maps and scenarios
Communicating probabilities

Best Regards, Eliza Calder
University at Buffalo, USA.

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